Lively ‘Open Research Forum 2009’

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The day after returning from Dubai I went for a panel ‘Global Agenda and Japan’ (Ref.1) (in Japanese) in ‘G-SEC 3rd annual conference’, a part of the series of lectures and panels  (in Japanese) named ‘ORF 2009’ organized by Keio University.  Many programs were running simultaneously and there was a lively mood in the air reflecting the fact that a large number of the participants were young people.

The panel (video) started with a great keynote lecture by Mr. Yoichi Funabashi, Editor in Chief of the Asahi Newspaper.  Then, Dr. Heizo Takenaka hosted the panel of Mr. Funabashi and three of us who just returned fromDubai and Fujairah the day before; Drs. Tamura, Kondo and myself.  Dr. Motohisa Furukawa could not make it because his work at the government office was ‘Super’ heavy.

The people in this panel were all those who could see Japan clearly from ‘outside’ so the discussion was very active.  I wished there was more time ? we ran out of it too quickly.

Perhaps you may feel that I am basically talking about the same theme recently (global change, the ‘strength’ and ‘weak points’ of Japan, etc.).    However, the audience is different every time, so I keep on talking about these matters even if it sounds repetitious.

Tracks of politics; Masato Shimizu, journalist

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At last, we are having the Shugi-in (House of Representatives) election.  Dissolve of Parliament by Minister Koizumi of the time, named “Yusei (Ministry of Post and Telecommunications)” dissolve, and the following Shugi-in election which ended up with the sweeping victory of Jimin-to (Liberal Demographic Party) seems just like yesterday.  But after this, Koizumi, Abe, Fukuda, and Aso respectively became Prime Minister for one year each, which I assume was somewhat a “strange” period of time perhaps to many people.

There are many unclear elements in the background of politics like this, unknown truths hidden behind, but here lies the mission of journalists.

Mr. Masato Shimizu of Nikkei published for us the “documentary record” of the process and record of Kantei initiatives led by PM Koizumi, activities of Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (Keizai Zaisei Shimon Kaigi), and the drama of 3 PMs taking turns after Koizumi.  Now the record is a “series of 3 books”.

I read through the first book and was very impressed.  Shortly after, he wrote another two books in very timely topics.  I am very pleased about it.

“Kantei initiatives-revolution of Junichiro Koizumi (Kantei syudo – Koizumi Jyunichiro no Kakumei)” (2005)
“Commentaries on the war on Economy and Finance (Keizai Zaisei Senki)” (2007)
“Misstep of the Prime Minister (Shusyo no Satetsu”) (April, 2009)

They are records based on careful coverings by Mr. Shimizu on the national politics of Japan ? what happened, who did what, when, how and what are their meanings and impacts.

It is always the case that newspapers, televisions, or magazines-because of the limits they are imposed of time and space-are not sufficient to make us fully understand about the politics of Japan.  Besides, it takes great effort or almost impossible to try to access to these reports or articles later on.

For this very reason, it is so important and valuable for us Japanese citizens to have a journalist, active in that time, publish a timely book on what happened based on his/her coverage in spite of the very busy life they lead.  It will be a good record, too.  The “Afterword” of his third book illustrates very well the difficulty Mr. Shimizu encountered in catching up with such rapidly changing circumstances.

In newspapers and other medias, journalists cover, study, and write articles on his/her own focused fields (but probably most of their works do not appear on the pages due to editing policies the desks have based on the priorities of the news etc.) but I would say in most cases one article is not enough to cover the issue simply because of the transient nature of newspapers, its limited spaces.  Of course, there are weekly and monthly magazines, series on newspapers too.  And quite a volume of articles are now readable on internet.  But still, I would say that it is quite meaningful to have those information gathered, edited, added and published as a non-fiction.

Are we capable of making an open minded journalism?  This is an issue of consciousness and ethics of organization ? of media relations, journalism.

Media is a huge power that bears tremendous responsibility to the society.  I am weary and tired of our old, never changing “kisha club”, too.  There is no hope if institutions continue to be rigid, or journalists keep on behaving like salary earners.  Remember that the whole world is watching.  Excuses good for Japanese only will not persuade them.

Jaques Attali; A brief history of the future ? a brave and controversial look at the twenty-first century

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To trace the history of humans and predict the future ? this is always important at any time.  “Wise men learn from history, fools learn from experience”, “Historia Majistra Vitae”…. East or west, same kind of sayings are inherited.  They are the “wisdom of human kind”. Here in this site also, I have sent out messages of the like for a number of times. (For references in Japanese, please see 1, 2, 3, 4)

In my last posting I introduced a book by Fareed Zakaria, but “a brief history of the future ? a brave and controversial look at the twenty-first century”  written by Jaques Attali, one of the greatest intellectuals of France today, is equally very powerful and provocative.  This book predicts the world in the 21st century by sorting out “keywords to analyze the past and predict how our world will look like in the 21st century” from the long history of human beings. “Laws of history, rules for success are also applicable for future.  Understanding them will enable us to predict how the future will be…”.

For the Japanese edition, a short chapter titled “21st century ? will Japan survive?” is added as well as a chapter titled “Will France survive in the history of the 21st century?” in the end.  Anyway, the Japanese edition looks much more voluminous compared to English edition although I cannot read French original to compare.

Many of you might have seen the 2 hours’ interview with Jack Atari regarding this book on NHK.

The book’s content is structured by 6 chapters:
1. A Very Long History
2. A Brief History of Capitalism
3. The End of the American Empire
4. First Wave of the Future: Planetary Empire
5. Second Wave of the Future: Planetary War
6. Third Wave of the Future: Planetary Democracy

It was first published in 2006, but in “The Beginning of the End” of 2nd chapter it says: “Proliferating, excessive, limitless, and out of control, the American financial system requires profitability rates that industry cannot deliver, to the point where industrial corporations now lend their money in the financial sector rather than invest it in their own activities…” and “”Salary-earners are also increasingly indebted, especially in regard to two public corporations (Fannie Mae, second-ranking American corporation, and the fifth-ranked Freddie Mac), which hold or stand behind five trillion dollars’ worth of mortgage loans, a debt multiplied by four in ten years….” (p.98,99)  Here, we may say that Attalie predicted the subprime mortgage crisis as the financial panic started in the summer of 2007.

Attalie also introduces concept of “Core cities” and writes that “It constantly reinvents itself in a unique shape, around a single center, a single core, which attracts an innovative class (shipbuilders manufacturers, traders, technicians, and financiers) marked by its taste for the new and its passion for discovery.  Until a crisis, or a war, leads to replacement of one core by another. (p.35)

Many “lessons for the future” are given, but here I will list just a few:                  “transmission is a condition of progress" (p.5)
"a new communications technology, seen as a centralizing influence, turns out to be the implacable enemy of the powers that be." (p.50, footnote *1)
"the authoritarian state creates the market, which in its turn creates democracy." (p.69)
"the link between technology and sexuality underpins the whole dynamic of the mercantile order." (p.81)
"many major innovations result from the work of researchers paid out of public funds to look into something utterly different." (p.90)

Sub-titles illustrate brilliantly of the 21st century phenomenon that appears.  For example;
“Nomadic Ubiquity” (Arrival of Nomadic Ubiquity that Changes History)
“Irretrievable Scarcities” (Environment of Earth in the Future)
“Time: The Only True Scarcity” (Time: The Only True Scarcity Left)
And so on…
(In the parenthesis are sub-titles from Japanese edition for your reference.)

Then, the 4th Chapter begins.  First, second, and third waves of the future are described.

How can I describe the content?  Stimulating, horrifying, provocative… I have a feeling that most of them will actually realize.  There are many signs even now.

After reading, I thought of Jared Diamond’s book “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed”

I recommend these books in addition to “The Post-American World”.  Please keep them in your mind and read whenever you have opportunities.

Footnote 1:  I also have been pointing out the weakness of “Vertical Society” in a “Flat World” by quoting Latin words “Incunabulum, Incunabula” in number of lectures.  For instance, please see my columns 1, 2, or 3.

Keynes and Schumpeter

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Lehman Shock (September, 2008) that started from Wall Street has triggered financial crisis and doldrums of economy in a global scale which still seems to be far from ending.  Each nation crafted stimulus packages and put them into action that now the picture looks more like policy competition in a broad sense.

Here is where Keynes, and Schumpeter who set "Innovation" at the center of economics attract attention.  Schumpeter seemed to have been a strong opponent of Keynes.  Why is it then that these two "contradicting" economists are both necessary?

Recently a book on these two giants of economics in the early 20th century was published; "Now is the time to learn from Keynes and Schumpeter (Imakoso Keynes to Schumpeter ni manabe)" by Dr. Hiroshi Yoshikawa.  This is a very stimulating book.  Dr. Yoshikawa has written this book based on strict verifications and inspections – which is his style.  The content is even entertaining – not written for economists – so it was fairly understandable even for a person like myself.

These two giants, Keynes and Schumpeter, were born in 1883 with just 4 months’ difference; in Cambridge, Great Britain and Vienna, Austria (Moravia, Kingdom of Hungary・・・ current eastern Czech Republic), and the year they died were only 4 years apart (Keynes in 1946, two years after Bretton Woods Agreements and Schumpeter in 1950.)  I recommend "Currency in Flame (Tsuka Moyu/the URL is in Japanese)" by Tomohiko Taniguchi on this topic.  It gives you good understanding of the age and place they lived, the background of their upbringing, education they had, relations with their mentors, and so on.

The book is a good reference with inspiring, rich content on policymaking which could be useful to Japan today.

There were many places that I found especially interesting and below are just few of the examples:

1. "・・・what are the motives for the enterprise operators (footnote) to go into new joints?  By no means they seek after financial benefits or money.  Schumpeter declares・・・and even goes on further to say "If this sort of desire appears it indicates not stagnation of their conventional activities but decline, not fulfillment of their missions but sign of their mortal deaths."  ・・・Schumpeter very clearly writes about typological classifications of industrial people・・・" (p.56,57)

Footnote: I telephoned Dr. Yoshikawa about difference between "enterprise operators" and "entrepreneurs".  He said that economists do not use the term "entrepreneurs" but instead "enterprise operators".  However, he added, "entrepreneurs" might be better understood by average readers.  So, please feel free to understand the term "enterprise operators, business operators" as "entrepreneurs".

2. "The business people as defined by Schumpeter – the heros/heroines that make capitalism the capitalism as is meant to be – are people born with special talents that are not bestowed to ordinary people.  Innovation is by no means created solely from rational calculations.  Rather, it is created only by business people who have irresistible impulse or ‘talents’ as I put it, that make them yearn for innovation.

Here, The Birth of Tragedy(1872), maiden work by Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche(1844-1900) comes to my mind.  Nietzsche discussed the history of classic Greek tragedies by using two opposing ideas of ‘Apollonian’ and ‘Dionysian’.  Apollo, the god of Sun gives clear figure to everything through its light.  Intellect/reasoning is thus Apollonian.  On the other hand the essence of Dionysus, god of wine, is frenzy/intoxication.  ‘Business operator spirit’ defined by Schumpeter is clearly Dionysian just as ‘Animal spirits’ in Keynes is." (p.227, 228)

About economy and decline in population

3. "Keynes discussed relations between decline in population and economy in a very scholarly way as economist – as this is very much his style.  On the contrary, words by Schumpeter are by far "discussions on civilizations"". (p.210)

And

4. "But eventually, as capitalism develops, business operators as plain human beings start transformation to ‘ordinary people’ that maximize ‘benefit’ of self.  What happens at the point of maximization of individuals’ benefit?  The moment people start rationally calculating the cost of bearing a child and raising it, decline in population will begin.  Schumpeter counts decline in population as one of the signs of decay in the spirit of business operation." (p.229-230)

How did these two giants of economics perceive of each other?  This is another very interesting human drama.

I strongly recommend this book to you.  It is "Onko Chishin (to learn new lessons by studying the past)."
Also, "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism" by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller was published recently.  After reading this book, here are some of my thoughts about policy makings of Japan during these 6 months.

Speed is of course important but it does not justify pumping in tax payers’ money into society easily without inspection saying this is "once in 100 years" crisis (Greenspan, former chairman of FRB).  Sometimes it is forced by political dynamics but if you look into supplementary budgets, for instance, the budgets are almost scattering about of money with bureaucratic sectionalism.  I must say that people lack leadership; policy makers, industries, academics, and scientists… all of them.

If it is "once in 100 years", although doubt remains, clear vision and policies must be introduced for the major changes that need to take place several years from now.  And we don’t have them.  I have been pointing this out repeatedly in my blog and many other places. (Ref: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  *3,4,5,6 are in Japanese.)

Is the industrial framework OK as it is?  Can we expect "Innovators" to emerge in current industries?

What we need in society, in any place of the society, are "Innovators".  In other words, "Nails that stick out", "People with spirit of enterprise" ・・・.  These kinds of people are strongly needed at time like this.

TED comes to Tokyo

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"TED comes to Tokyo."  And if your response to this news is "finally!" or "at last!," then you must be a kind of freak(?) in this area.  But believe it or not, it actually did.

On May 22, TEDxTokyo was held at the National Museum of Emerging Science and Innovation in Odaiba.  The audience was limited to 200, language was English exclusively, and the percentage of Japanese participants was limited to maximum 40%.  I was involved in organizing this event, and we arranged to have each live speaker speak no more than 18 minutes.  We also sorted out several nice videos from TED and mixed them into the program.  It turned out to be a very exciting and inspiring day.

The two producers, Todd and Patrick, were nice combination and the way they hosted the event was in a good tempo and stylish.

Visit the TEDxTokyo website or the original TED site and have lots of fun.

Thanks to so many young volunteers who helped this happen.

Tahiti-3 (Captain Cook、Battleship Baunty、Lighthouse of Stevenson)

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Tahiti is famous for Paul Gaugin (1848-1903) (Ref.1) but is well known for Captain Cook (1728-1779) also.

The three great voyages of Cook are without doubt extraordinary.  He sailed to Tahiti in 1769 by the request from Royal Society to observe ‘Transit of Venus across the Sun’.

By the way, as you may be familiar from movies etc., in 1788 (nine years after Cook), Battleship Bounty known for “Mutiny on the Bounty” arrived at this very same place.  A monument is built in memory of the Bounty (Photo2).

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Photo2: Monument of Bounty landing

Lighthouse in Photos3~5 also stands at this place.  This was built by the famous company “Lighthouse Stevenson” (founded by Robert Stevenson, 1772-1850), 100 years later in 1867 (first year of Meiji era).

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Photo3: The lighthouse

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Photo5: Entrance of the lighthouse

I found a very interesting thing as I looked close to this lighthouse.  It is shown in the photo on the top, an enlarged picture of something seen in the left part of photo5.  In my next posting I will write about it.  It is about the “Story of coincidence in history ? in relation to the Meiji Restoration.”

At about the same time, i.e. the early period of Meiji era, several lighthouses were build in Japan and major ones were designed by Richard Branton who was trained at “Lighthouse Stevenson.”

 

From Davos-2

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Weather is beautiful again today.

Meeting as a whole is on the web site – from varieties of sessions to reports.  Enjoy them with ‘clicks’ when you have time.

Participation of young Japanese people from industrial sector is increasing steadily and becoming notable.  Their words and presence are positive and I am glad about that.  Since people of the world thinks that industries of Japan are represented by "Keidanren," it would be even better if young people increased more to liven up the place and impress the presence of Japan.

This year’s meeting has very different atmosphere from previous meetings because of market meltdown and the prospect of economy’s continuing downfall.  People argue a lot about why finance relations are not punished for creating problems, when other industries will, as a matter of course, be given penalties should they put defective products into market.  "Greed," "Loss of Style" may be the keywords.  I heard much talk of this sort going on at personal levels.  In the Gaza issues panel (see Webcast), the prime minister of Turkey stood up before the panel was over and left for home protesting that he was treated unfairly compared to President Perez of Isreal in terms of the allocation of time for speech, and the (bad) timing of speech.  I haven’t seen that scene in person, but naturally it was a hot topic and judging from media reports, people in Turkey are paying much attention as seen in the frantic welcome at the homecoming of the prime minister.  After watching the Webcast, what is your impression and opinion?

Dsc00533_4peoplePhotos2~4: Breakfast meeting. You might know some of them.

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On 30th from 7:30am, I was invited to a breakfast meeting of "friends who worry that Japan is vague to the eyes of people in the world because it sends too little information," as they called it (Photos2~4).  It is so moving.  I think many of Japanese participants were told something like this, at least in private situation.

I also had opportunities to have lively discussions with various people, such as Mr. Okabe, Editor in Chief of Nikkei, Mr. Hayashi, Chairman and CEO of JETRO.  Unfortunately, it is difficult to see each other in Japan because everybody is busy.

Dsc00537_2_japanese Photo5: Mr. Okabe, Editor in Chief of Nikkei (right) and Mr. Hayashi, Chairman and CEO of JETRO

As for myself, I had panels on Day 2 and Day 3.  I fully enjoyed them, making lots of new friends at the same time. 

I think part of the panels may be viewed at the website of Davos Meeting (29th, 30th, and the final day).

From media, Mr. Funabashi, editor in chief of Asahi Shinbun newspaper, Mr. Okabe of Nikkei newspaper, Mr. Fujisawa of NHK television, etc. were present.  Ms. Waki (residing in London) from Reuter is also working actively as reporter every year recently.

Global health

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One of the pillar activities of our NPO “Health Policy Institute” is “Global Health” and the word repeatedly appears in various ways in this site. Activities on Global Health are promoted with the collaboration of many people in the global world, such as the World Bank, Gates Foundation, Rockefeller Foundation, government and also governmental organizations.

These activities are so called “civil society” activities, and I think we were able to contribute to last year’s Global Health Summit, TICAD4, G8 Summit etc. through the promotion of this movement. Please “search” in this site as well. 

In the world, there are many people who are in unbelievable misery. I was able to take part in one of the projects about this. As I have reported, it is a film documentary series called “SURVIVAL” produced by Rockhopper with the cooperation of Imperial College, BBC and the Gates Foundation. The series is now completed and you can see them on the web in English, Japanese, German and French. I am also sending a message which is written in Japanese, but I am actually speaking in English. This is a bit strange.

My interviews

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In a recent interview 2050: The Odyssey Begins （The Japan Journal　January, 2008）, I made my view crystal clear of the challenges of Japan and its responsibility as a global citizen nation. Otherwise, Japan may be buried as a forgotten quiet and retracted islands.

Another quotation of my comments by Mr David Dickson also appeared in Science and Developoment Network almost a few days ago.

Yes, Japan has to face the reality of the globalization and share its fare responsibility despite of her own huge internal resistance and problems. Yes, we can do a lot more, if the policy frameworks are set just right and with good leaderships in every sector of the society.